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Motor Carrier Safety Report

DOT #1553335 · CF LLC

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CF LLC

DOT# 1553335 Ithaca, MI Authorized For-Hire / Exempt For-Hire

(989) 763-4307 lori.chaffin.farms@gmail.com 3239 W St Charles Rd, Ithaca MI 48847

30 power units · all owned 15 drivers

Intrastate Only

Not enough record

Graded once the record supports it

20 yrs history · 4 roadside inspections

Checking FMCSA…

Fleet & equipment

Power units: 30
Drivers · CDL: 15 · 0
Annual miles: 25k unreliable

Type	Own	Total
Trucks	10	10
Tractors	20	20
Trailers	20	20

Registration

Registered: 09-13-2006 (20 yrs)
MCS-150 Update: 08-29-2023
FRED Score Date: Nov 08, 2026
Officer: BEN CHAFFIN
Officer: CF LLC

Cargo

45.1

low risk

Fresh Produce Grain/Feed/Hay Dry Bulk Farm Supplies

Estimated from the commodity types reported to FMCSA, not from loss history or the true cargo mix.

Exposure Unverified

The expected crashes on this page assume the filed fleet of 30 power units is real, but the roadside record corroborates little of it — 3 units seen in 24 months, 0.03 inspections per filed unit-year. Verify the fleet size before relying on the crash expectation.

Mileage Unreliable

MCS-150 annual mileage appears too low for fleet size given observed activity. The per-100k-mile rate benchmarks on this page are excluded; the FRED grade does not use mileage (crash exposure is power-unit-years, violation exposure is inspection counts).

Stale MCS-150 Filing

This motor carrier has not updated its MCS-150 in over 3 years. Reported mileage and fleet size may be outdated.

Intrastate operation

Runs within Michigan only. Intrastate fleets in Michigan are inspected about 1 a year for every 16 trucks; interstate fleets, about 1 a year for every 2 trucks. So this record rests mainly on crash reports, which states file for intrastate trucks too, and few inspections are ordinary here.

Not enough record to grade yet.

4 inspections and 1 crash on the FMCSA record in 24 months fit anything from an Excellent fleet to a Poor one.

Similar fleets: intrastate fleets of 20–49 trucks with the same kind of operation, years in business and amount of road activity. Compared using its own crash record and roadside inspections.

80% likely range 0.15×–3.52×

ExcellentStrongSatisf.SatisfactoryMarginalPoorCritical

▲ Similar fleets 1.0×

Expected crashes, next 12 months

0.2 vs 0.1 for similar fleets

Likely 0–1 crashes

This motor carrier

0.2

Similar fleets

0.1

A record this thin can't pin that down: about a 1-in-3 chance it runs at Poor-level crash rates.

Ask

Loss runs for the last 3 years, and confirm the fleet is operating at its filed size (30 power units).

What the record shows

Crash history

betterworse

Too little record to tell. 1 fatal crash (1 death) on the FMCSA record in 24 months (about 0.5 a year); similar fleets have about 0.1 a year.

Roadside inspections

betterworse

Worse than peers. Unsafe-driving and hours-of-service violations 1.65×, out-of-service orders 1.49× and violations 1.35× the rate expected for its inspections. Together they move its crash estimate +12%: roadside results weigh far less than crash history.

Worth a closer look

From the FMCSA record. The estimate already counts the safety items; insurance filings and links to other motor carriers are context only.

Fatal crash

1 crash with 1 fatality in 24 months (most recent Feb 11, 2025).

Ask: the accident register and loss runs for these crashes.
Filed fleet not seen on the road

Only 3 of the 30 filed power units were seen at a roadside inspection in 24 months (4 inspections in all). The crash expectation assumes all 30 are running. Intrastate fleets of 20–49 trucks in Michigan are rarely inspected (about 1 a year for every 12 trucks), so the roadside record can't confirm the fleet either way.

Ask: how many trucks are actually operating, with the vehicle schedule (the MCS-150 was last updated Aug 2023).

Data flags

Unreliable reported mileage
The motor carrier's self-reported annual mileage (MCS-150) looks implausible, so exposure- and mileage-based figures may be distorted.
Estimated mileage
No usable mileage was reported, so exposure was estimated from similar motor carriers. Mileage-based metrics here are approximate.
Limited inspection history
Fewer than 5 roadside inspections on record, so there isn't enough data to score this motor carrier with high confidence — the score leans more on peers.

Track record

FMCSA record, Oct 2024 – Jul 2026 · grade scored on Oct 1, 2023 → Oct 31, 2026

Crashes

1 fatality · 0 injuries · 0 tow-aways

Inspections

50% clean (no violations)

Vehicle out-of-service

50.0%

1 of 2

Intrastate avg 30.6%

Driver out-of-service

0.0%

0 of 3

Intrastate avg 8.5%

Violations

1 out-of-service

Inspected about as often as intrastate fleets of 20–49 trucks in Michigan (about 5 in 24 months would be typical; 40% of them had none).

Inspections per quarter With an out-of-service order

vs 230 peer fleets

	This motor carrier	Peers
Crashes	0.017	0.010
Inspections	0.07	0.28
Violations	0.05	0.17
Critical violations	0.02	0.03

Yearly rates from the last 24 months. Peers: intrastate fleets, 20–49 power units, low-risk cargo.

What they get cited for

3 violations · 24 months

Unsafe driving No alert

2 · 0 OOS

Seat belt 1 · Speeding 1
Vehicle maintenance No alert

1 · 1 OOS

Lights 1
Hours of service No alert

0
Driver fitness No alert

0
Drugs & alcohol No alert

0

Out-of-service violations “No alert” = under FMCSA's BASIC intervention threshold

Violations by quarter

Tap a category to show or hide it

No violation trend data

Crashes

24 months

Feb

11

2025

Michigan
Fatal · 1 death
Wet road, daylight, two-way trafficway not divided.

No other reportable crashes on the FMCSA record.

Insurance filed with FMCSA

Today · live FMCSA check

Checking FMCSA…

No MC, FF or MX docket on FMCSA's registration for this motor carrier, so there are no insurance filings to show. FMCSA collects filings only from registered for-hire authorities; other motor carriers keep proof of insurance (MCS-90) at their place of business.

FMCSA filings only, not a policy audit. Not part of the FRED grade. Wrong or out of date?

Where it happens

Loading map data…

Inspections by state

Michigan (HQ) 4

How the estimate is calculated

The model, its inputs, the window it scored and its confidence. For actuaries and anyone checking the work.

Forward 12-Month Risk Outlook

The FRED Score predicts this motor carrier's crash risk over the next 12 months — how often they're likely to crash and how severe those crashes tend to be — versus a typical fleet of its size (30 power units: 30 filed, 3 seen roadside in 24 months).

Crash Outlook vs Peer Fleet

crashes per year · same scale

Average peer fleet

0.1

Actual, per year in window

0.3

Projected, next 12 mo

0.2

0 0.25 0.5

We'd expect a typical fleet of 30 power units this active to have about 0.1 crashes a year — but only 3 of the 30 filed units were seen roadside in 24 months (0.03 inspections per filed unit-year), so this expectation assumes the filed fleet is real. This motor carrier recorded 1 in its scoring window (Oct 1, 2023 → Sep 30, 2026, about 0.3 a year) — about 2.6× a typical fleet. Factoring in its inspection and violation record inside that window and the credibility of its own experience, the model projects about 0.2 over the next 12 — about 1.5× the typical fleet. When this motor carrier does crash, those crashes tend to be substantially more severe than average — roughly 3.3× the injury/fatal weight of a typical crash.

Fatal-crash risk: less than a 1% chance in the next 12 months

Modeled fatal-crash rate is roughly 1.5× that of similar fleets (likelihood of at least one fatal crash, from its exposure and safety profile; the filed fleet is not corroborated roadside).

Track Record Used

Crashes Oct 1, 2023 → Sep 30, 2026 · inspections Nov 1, 2024 → Oct 31, 2026 · data as of Nov 4, 2026

Inside that window: 2 inspections and 1 crash. The FMCSA record tables now hold 3 inspections and 1 crash in that window — the SMS data moved after this grade was computed.

Outside the scoring window

on the FMCSA record · not in this grade

Aged out — crashes before Oct 1, 2023, inspections before Nov 1, 2024

Out-of-service inspection Oct 8, 2024 · MI · level 2 · 2 vehicle OOS · 1 violation

Why there is no grade. Every grade but Satisfactory needs at least a 60% posterior past its cut; Satisfactory is what is left when none passes. Here the 80% likely range (0.15×–3.52×) still runs from below the Excellent cut (0.60×) to above the Poor cut (1.57×), so the record can't separate a best-in-class fleet from a poor one and the page shows no grade and no FRED Score. The forecasts are unchanged: in backtests, records this thin crash at their forecast on average but scatter about 2.6× as widely around it as records that support a Satisfactory grade.

Confidence: Prior-only · Z = 0.06 (posterior 0.31 × exposure corroboration) Provisional

Satisfactory — 1.51x its class rate (cuts: Excellent <0.60, Strong <0.76, Satisfactory <1.06, Marginal <1.57, Poor <2.11). Class rate 0.004 crashes per power-unit-year for a 30-unit for-hire fleet (pu20_49). Violations 1.12x (driver behaviour 1.65x, out-of-service 1.49x, all violations 1.35x; 2 inspections). Experience 1.35x: 0.5 decayed crashes against 0.2 expected over 36 months (credibility 0.31, a 0.49). 80% range 0.15–3.52x. Exposure: 3 of 30 filed power units seen roadside in 24 months, 0.03 inspections per filed unit-year — the class expectation assumes the filed fleet is real; confidence cut. Last change: fleet size or class.

Since the previous weekly run the risk relativity moved +21.5%, driven by fleet size or class attributes.

Scoring flags MCS-150 filing more than 3 years old MCS-150 mileage unreliable (mileage is not in the grade) Intrastate operation — rated against intrastate fleets (a class crash rate about 23% lower); roadside inspections are rarer, so the record rests more on crashes Thin record (low credibility: little exposure behind the grade) Filed fleet not corroborated roadside — expected crashes assume the filed units are real; an Excellent or Strong grade is capped one band (interim)

What Drives This Score

1.00× = this motor carrier's class rate

FRED multiplies three factors: the class rate a fleet of this size, class and activity is expected to run, a violation relativity from its roadside record, and its own crash experience over 36 months weighted by how much exposure stands behind it. The grade is the band of the resulting relativity to class, then the screens.

Class rate

0.4 crashes per 100 power-unit-years

30 power units (3 seen roadside — exposure unverified) · 0.13 expected crashes a year

Violation relativity

1.12×

2 inspections in window

Crash experience

1.35×

0.5 decayed crashes vs 0.2 expected · credibility 0.31

Driver behaviour

1.65×

Out-of-service rate

1.49×

All violations

1.35×

0×1× class2×+

Each sub-relativity is shrunk toward its cohort rate when the record is thin (Bühlmann credibility), so a short record reads close to 1.00×.

Relativity to class 1.51× (80% range 0.15–3.52×) · band Marginal → displayed Satisfactory · cuts: Excellent <0.60, Strong <0.76, Satisfactory <1.06, Marginal <1.57, Poor <2.11, Critical above

Full methodology · Scoring white paper · Validation study

FMCSA records

BASIC measures and every inspection, violation and crash, sortable and filterable.

FMCSA BASIC Scores

C Property

Total Inspections

Driver Insp

Driver OOS

Vehicle Insp

Vehicle OOS

BASIC	Insp w/ Viol	Measure
Unsafe Driving	1	1.10
HOS Compliance	0	0.00
Driver Fitness	0	0.00
Controlled Substances	0	0.00
Vehicle Maintenance	1	4.00

SMS record data is sourced from FMCSA's Safety Measurement System (08-OCT-24 – 18-JUL-25) and may cover a different time window than the scoring window used for the FRED grade (Oct 1, 2023 → Oct 31, 2026). Counts here may differ from the grade's in-window counts.

CF LLC

Fleet & equipment

Registration

Cargo

Worth a closer look

Track record

What they get cited for

Violations by quarter

Crashes

Insurance filed with FMCSA

Where it happens

Forward 12-Month Risk Outlook

FMCSA BASIC Scores

FMCSA Inspection Records

FMCSA Crash Records

FMCSA Violation Records

CF LLC

FMCSA Live Status

Fleet & equipment

Registration

Cargo

Worth a closer look

Track record

What they get cited for

Violations by quarter

Crashes

Insurance filed with FMCSA

Where it happens

Forward 12-Month Risk Outlook

FMCSA BASIC Scores

FMCSA Inspection Records

FMCSA Crash Records

FMCSA Violation Records