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Motor Carrier Safety Report

DOT #1925353 · ARIZONA RAINFALL INC

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ARIZONA RAINFALL INC

DOT# 1925353 Surprise, AZ Authorized For-Hire

(623) 583-9050 13001 W Grand Ave, Surprise AZ 85374

24 power units · all owned 12 drivers 5,000 mi/yr · ~0k per unit

Intrastate Only

Not enough record

Graded once the record supports it

17 yrs history · 0 roadside inspections

Checking FMCSA…

Fleet & equipment

Power units: 24
Drivers · CDL: 12 · 1
Annual miles: 5,000

Type	Own	Total
Trucks	24	24
Tractors	0	0
Trailers	0	0

Registration

Registered: 08-12-2009 (17 yrs)
MCS-150 Update: 08-12-2009
FRED Score Date: Nov 07, 2026
Officer: GARY HINES

Cargo

25.5

low risk

Building Materials Other: LANDSCAPING Construction

Estimated from the commodity types reported to FMCSA, not from loss history or the true cargo mix.

Exposure Unverified

The expected crashes on this page assume the filed fleet of 24 power units is real, but the roadside record corroborates little of it — 0 units seen in 24 months, 0.00 inspections per filed unit-year. Verify the fleet size before relying on the crash expectation.

Intrastate Only

Intrastate-only carrier — not required to file MCS-150. May be inspected less frequently than interstate carriers. Safety rates may have lower statistical confidence.

Mileage Data Quality Issue

Mileage per power unit is unusually low for a fleet of this size.

Not enough record to grade yet.

No inspections and no crashes on the FMCSA record in 24 months fit anything from an Excellent fleet to a Poor one.

Similar fleets: private fleets of 20–49 trucks with the same kind of operation, years in business and amount of road activity. Compared using its own crash record and roadside inspections.

80% likely range 0.00×–1.92×

ExcellentStrongSatisf.SatisfactoryMarginalPoorCritical

▲ Similar fleets 1.0×

Expected crashes, next 12 months

0.0 vs 0.1 for similar fleets

Most likely none

This motor carrier

0.0

Similar fleets

0.1

A record this thin can't pin that down: about a 1-in-8 chance it runs at Poor-level crash rates.

Ask

Loss runs for the last 3 years, and confirm the fleet is operating at its filed size (24 power units).

What the record shows

Crash history

betterworse

Too little record to tell. 0 crashes on the FMCSA record in 24 months; similar fleets have about 0.1 a year.

Roadside inspections

betterworse

No roadside record. No inspections in the scoring window, so roadside results leave its estimate at typical.

Worth a closer look

From the FMCSA record. The estimate already counts the safety items; insurance filings and links to other motor carriers are context only.

Filed fleet not seen on the road

Only 0 of the 24 filed power units were seen at a roadside inspection in 24 months (0 inspections in all). The crash expectation assumes all 24 are running.

Ask: how many trucks are actually operating, with the vehicle schedule.

Data flags

Limited inspection history
Fewer than 5 roadside inspections on record, so there isn't enough data to score this motor carrier with high confidence — the score leans more on peers.

Track record

FMCSA record, last 24 months · grade scored on Sep 1, 2023 → Sep 30, 2026

Crashes

0 fatalities · 0 injuries · 0 tow-aways

Inspections

roadside inspections

Vehicle out-of-service

—

no inspections

National avg 22.3%

Driver out-of-service

—

no inspections

National avg 6.7%

Violations

0 out-of-service

vs 721 peer fleets

Inspections per power unit look like an outlier vs peers; read these rates with care.

	This motor carrier	Peers
Crashes	0.000	0.019
Inspections	0.00	0.53
Violations	0.00	0.27
Critical violations	0.00	0.05

Yearly rates from the last 24 months. Peers: 20–49 power units, low-risk cargo.

What they get cited for

0 violations · 24 months

No violations on the FMCSA record in the last 24 months.

Violations by quarter

Tap a category to show or hide it

No violation trend data

Crashes

24 months

No reportable crashes on the FMCSA record in the last 24 months.

Insurance filed with FMCSA

Today · live FMCSA check

Checking FMCSA…

No MC, FF or MX docket on FMCSA's registration for this motor carrier, so there are no insurance filings to show. FMCSA collects filings only from registered for-hire authorities; other motor carriers keep proof of insurance (MCS-90) at their place of business.

FMCSA filings only, not a policy audit. Not part of the FRED grade. Wrong or out of date?

Where it happens

Loading map data…

How the estimate is calculated

The model, its inputs, the window it scored and its confidence. For actuaries and anyone checking the work.

Forward 12-Month Risk Outlook

The FRED Score predicts this motor carrier's crash risk over the next 12 months — how often they're likely to crash and how severe those crashes tend to be — versus a typical fleet of its size (24 power units: 24 filed, 0 seen roadside in 24 months).

Crash Outlook vs Peer Fleet

crashes per year · same scale

Average peer fleet

0.1

Actual, per year in window

0.0

Projected, next 12 mo

0.0

0 0.25 0.5

We'd expect a typical fleet of 24 power units this active to have about 0.1 crashes a year — but only 0 of the 24 filed units were seen roadside in 24 months (0.00 inspections per filed unit-year), so this expectation assumes the filed fleet is real. This motor carrier recorded 0 in its scoring window (Sep 1, 2023 → Aug 31, 2026, about 0.0 a year) — fewer than a typical fleet. Factoring in its inspection and violation record inside that window and the credibility of its own experience, the model projects about 0.0 over the next 12 — below a typical fleet.

Fatal-crash risk: less than a 1% chance in the next 12 months

Modeled fatal-crash rate is below that of similar fleets (likelihood of at least one fatal crash, from its exposure and safety profile; the filed fleet is not corroborated roadside).

Track Record Used

Crashes Sep 1, 2023 → Aug 31, 2026 · inspections Oct 1, 2024 → Sep 30, 2026 · data as of Oct 29, 2026

Inside that window: 0 inspections and 0 crashes.

Why there is no grade. Every grade but Satisfactory needs at least a 60% posterior past its cut; Satisfactory is what is left when none passes. Here the 80% likely range (0.00×–1.92×) still runs from below the Excellent cut (0.60×) to above the Poor cut (1.57×), so the record can't separate a best-in-class fleet from a poor one and the page shows no grade and no FRED Score. The forecasts are unchanged: in backtests, records this thin crash at their forecast on average but scatter about 2.6× as widely around it as records that support a Satisfactory grade.

Confidence: Prior-only · Z = 0.00 (posterior 0.35 × exposure corroboration) Provisional

Satisfactory — 0.65x its class rate (cuts: Excellent <0.60, Strong <0.76, Satisfactory <1.06, Marginal <1.57, Poor <2.11). Class rate 0.002 crashes per power-unit-year for a 24-unit for-hire fleet (pu20_49). Violations 1.00x (driver behaviour 1.00x, out-of-service 1.00x, all violations 1.00x; 0 inspections). Experience 0.65x: 0.0 decayed crashes against 0.1 expected over 36 months (credibility 0.35, a 0.15). 80% range 0.00–1.92x. Exposure: 0 of 24 filed power units seen roadside in 24 months, 0.00 inspections per filed unit-year — the class expectation assumes the filed fleet is real; confidence cut. Upside withheld: under 0.1 inspections per filed power unit. Last change: no change since the last run.

No change since the previous weekly run.

Scoring flags MCS-150 filing more than 3 years old Intrastate-only operation (less roadside enforcement) Thin record (low credibility: little exposure behind the grade) Filed fleet not corroborated roadside — expected crashes assume the filed units are real; an Excellent or Strong grade is capped one band (interim) (informational — no grade effect)

What Drives This Score

1.00× = this motor carrier's class rate

FRED multiplies three factors: the class rate a fleet of this size, class and activity is expected to run, a violation relativity from its roadside record, and its own crash experience over 36 months weighted by how much exposure stands behind it. The grade is the band of the resulting relativity to class, then the screens.

Class rate

0.2 crashes per 100 power-unit-years

24 power units (0 seen roadside — exposure unverified) · 0.05 expected crashes a year

Violation relativity

1.00×

0 inspections in window

Crash experience

0.65×

0.0 decayed crashes vs 0.1 expected · credibility 0.35

Driver behaviour

1.00×

Out-of-service rate

1.00×

All violations

1.00×

0×1× class2×+

Each sub-relativity is shrunk toward its cohort rate when the record is thin (Bühlmann credibility), so a short record reads close to 1.00×.

Relativity to class 0.65× (80% range 0.00–1.92×) · band Strong → displayed Satisfactory · cuts: Excellent <0.60, Strong <0.76, Satisfactory <1.06, Marginal <1.57, Poor <2.11, Critical above

Upside withheld: under 0.1 inspections per filed power unit

Full methodology · Scoring white paper · Validation study

FMCSA records

BASIC measures and every inspection, violation and crash, sortable and filterable.

FMCSA BASIC Scores

C Property

Total Inspections

Driver Insp

Driver OOS

Vehicle Insp

Vehicle OOS

BASIC	Insp w/ Viol	Measure	Alert
Unsafe Driving	0	0.00
HOS Compliance	0	0.00
Driver Fitness	0	0.00
Controlled Substances	0	0.00
Vehicle Maintenance	0	0.00

ARIZONA RAINFALL INC

FMCSA Live Status

Fleet & equipment

Registration

Cargo

Worth a closer look

Track record

What they get cited for

Violations by quarter

Crashes

Insurance filed with FMCSA

Where it happens

Forward 12-Month Risk Outlook

FMCSA BASIC Scores