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Motor Carrier Safety Report

DOT #2865322 · NATURAL STATE MATERIALS AND LOGISTICS LLC

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NATURAL STATE MATERIALS AND LOGISTICS LLC

DOT# 2865322 Jonesboro, AR Authorized For-Hire / Private Property

(870) 932-4881 dustin.hedger@hedgerbrothers.org 100 S Patrick St, Jonesboro AR 72401-3052

11 tractors · all owned 19 drivers 594k mi/yr · ~54k per unit

Not enough record

Graded once the record supports it

10 yrs history · 1 roadside inspection

Checking FMCSA…

Fleet & equipment

Power units: 11
Drivers · CDL: 19 · 12
Annual miles: 594k

Type	Own	Total
Trucks	0	0
Tractors	11	11
Trailers	12	12

Registration

Registered: 03-14-2016 (10 yrs)
MCS-150 Update: 02-11-2024
FRED Score Date: Nov 08, 2026
Officer: DUSTIN ORLAN HEDGER

Cargo

56.6

medium risk

General Freight Building Materials Construction

High-Risk Cargo: General Freight

Note: "General Freight" is a catch-all; the actual cargo mix and its risk may differ.

Estimated from the commodity types reported to FMCSA, not from loss history or the true cargo mix.

Exposure Unverified

The expected crashes on this page assume the filed fleet of 11 power units is real, but the roadside record corroborates little of it — 1 unit seen in 24 months, 0.05 inspections per filed unit-year. Verify the fleet size before relying on the crash expectation.

Not enough record to grade yet.

1 inspection and no crashes on the FMCSA record in 24 months fit anything from an Excellent fleet to a Poor one.

Similar fleets: intrastate fleets of 10–19 trucks with the same kind of operation, years in business and amount of road activity. Compared using its own crash record and roadside inspections.

80% likely range 0.02×–2.09×

ExcellentStrongSatisf.SatisfactoryMarginalPoorCritical

▲ Similar fleets 1.0×

Expected crashes, next 12 months

0.1 vs 0.1 for similar fleets

Most likely none

This motor carrier

0.1

Similar fleets

0.1

A record this thin can't pin that down: about a 1-in-6 chance it runs at Poor-level crash rates.

Ask

Loss runs for the last 3 years, and confirm the fleet is operating at its filed size (11 power units).

What the record shows

Crash history

betterworse

Too little record to tell. 0 crashes on the FMCSA record in 24 months; similar fleets have about 0.1 a year.

Roadside inspections

betterworse

Better than peers. Violations 0.78× the rate expected for its inspections. Together they move its crash estimate -4%.

Worth a closer look

From the FMCSA record. The estimate already counts the safety items; insurance filings and links to other motor carriers are context only.

Filed fleet not seen on the road

Only 1 of the 11 filed power units was seen at a roadside inspection in 24 months (1 inspection in all). The crash expectation assumes all 11 are running. Intrastate fleets of 10–19 trucks in Arkansas are rarely inspected (about 1 a year for every 7 trucks), so the roadside record can't confirm the fleet either way.

Ask: how many trucks are actually operating, with the vehicle schedule (the MCS-150 was last updated Feb 2024).

Data flags

Limited inspection history
Fewer than 5 roadside inspections on record, so there isn't enough data to score this motor carrier with high confidence — the score leans more on peers.

Track record

FMCSA record, Feb 2025 – Feb 2025 · grade scored on Oct 1, 2023 → Oct 31, 2026

Crashes

0 fatalities · 0 injuries · 0 tow-aways

Inspections

100% clean (no violations)

Vehicle out-of-service

—

no inspections

Intrastate avg 30.6%

Driver out-of-service

0.0%

0 of 1

Intrastate avg 8.5%

Violations

0 out-of-service

Inspected less often than intrastate fleets of 10–19 trucks in Arkansas (about 3 in 24 months would be typical; 50% of them had none).

Inspections per quarter With an out-of-service order

vs 2,534 peer fleets

	This motor carrier	Peers
Crashes	0.000	0.016
Inspections	0.09	0.46
Violations	0.00	0.45
Critical violations	0.00	0.07

	This motor carrier	Peers
Crashes	0.000	0.071
Inspections	0.17	1.99
Violations	0.00	1.95
Critical violations	0.00	0.29

Yearly rates from the last 24 months. Peers: intrastate fleets, 10–19 power units, medium-risk cargo.

What they get cited for

0 violations · 24 months

No violations on the FMCSA record in the last 24 months.

Violations by quarter

Tap a category to show or hide it

No violation trend data

Crashes

24 months

No reportable crashes on the FMCSA record in the last 24 months.

Insurance filed with FMCSA

Today · live FMCSA check

Checking FMCSA…

No MC, FF or MX docket on FMCSA's registration for this motor carrier, so there are no insurance filings to show. FMCSA collects filings only from registered for-hire authorities; other motor carriers keep proof of insurance (MCS-90) at their place of business.

FMCSA filings only, not a policy audit. Not part of the FRED grade. Wrong or out of date?

Where it happens

Loading map data…

Inspections by state

Arkansas (HQ) 1

How the estimate is calculated

The model, its inputs, the window it scored and its confidence. For actuaries and anyone checking the work.

Forward 12-Month Risk Outlook

The FRED Score predicts this motor carrier's crash risk over the next 12 months — how often they're likely to crash and how severe those crashes tend to be — versus a typical fleet of its size (11 power units: 11 filed, 1 seen roadside in 24 months).

Crash Outlook vs Peer Fleet

crashes per year · same scale

Average peer fleet

0.1

Actual, per year in window

0.0

Projected, next 12 mo

0.1

0 0.25 0.5

We'd expect a typical fleet of 11 power units this active to have about 0.1 crashes a year — but only 1 of the 11 filed units were seen roadside in 24 months (0.05 inspections per filed unit-year), so this expectation assumes the filed fleet is real. This motor carrier recorded 0 in its scoring window (Oct 1, 2023 → Sep 30, 2026, about 0.0 a year) — fewer than a typical fleet. Factoring in its inspection and violation record inside that window and the credibility of its own experience, the model projects about 0.1 over the next 12 — below a typical fleet.

Fatal-crash risk: less than a 1% chance in the next 12 months

Modeled fatal-crash rate is about typical for similar fleets (likelihood of at least one fatal crash, from its exposure and safety profile; the filed fleet is not corroborated roadside).

Track Record Used

Crashes Oct 1, 2023 → Sep 30, 2026 · inspections Nov 1, 2024 → Oct 31, 2026 · data as of Nov 4, 2026

Inside that window: 1 inspection and 0 crashes.

Why there is no grade. Every grade but Satisfactory needs at least a 60% posterior past its cut; Satisfactory is what is left when none passes. Here the 80% likely range (0.02×–2.09×) still runs from below the Excellent cut (0.60×) to above the Poor cut (1.57×), so the record can't separate a best-in-class fleet from a poor one and the page shows no grade and no FRED Score. The forecasts are unchanged: in backtests, records this thin crash at their forecast on average but scatter about 2.6× as widely around it as records that support a Satisfactory grade.

Confidence: Prior-only · Z = 0.03 (posterior 0.17 × exposure corroboration) Provisional

Satisfactory — 0.80x its class rate (cuts: Excellent <0.60, Strong <0.76, Satisfactory <1.06, Marginal <1.57, Poor <2.11). Class rate 0.007 crashes per power-unit-year for a 11-unit for-hire fleet (pu10_19). Violations 0.96x (driver behaviour 0.91x, out-of-service 0.93x, all violations 0.78x; 1 inspections). Experience 0.83x: 0.0 decayed crashes against 0.1 expected over 36 months (credibility 0.17, a 0.60). 80% range 0.02–2.09x. Exposure: 1 of 11 filed power units seen roadside in 24 months, 0.05 inspections per filed unit-year — the class expectation assumes the filed fleet is real; confidence cut. Last change: older crashes rolling off.

Since the previous weekly run the risk relativity moved -0.1%, driven by older crashes rolling off the 36-month ramp.

Scoring flags Intrastate operation — rated against intrastate fleets (a class crash rate about 23% lower); roadside inspections are rarer, so the record rests more on crashes Thin record (low credibility: little exposure behind the grade) Filed fleet not corroborated roadside — expected crashes assume the filed units are real; an Excellent or Strong grade is capped one band (interim)

What Drives This Score

1.00× = this motor carrier's class rate

FRED multiplies three factors: the class rate a fleet of this size, class and activity is expected to run, a violation relativity from its roadside record, and its own crash experience over 36 months weighted by how much exposure stands behind it. The grade is the band of the resulting relativity to class, then the screens.

Class rate

0.7 crashes per 100 power-unit-years

11 power units (1 seen roadside — exposure unverified) · 0.08 expected crashes a year

Violation relativity

0.96×

1 inspection in window

Crash experience

0.83×

0.0 decayed crashes vs 0.1 expected · credibility 0.17

Driver behaviour

0.91×

Out-of-service rate

0.93×

All violations

0.78×

0×1× class2×+

Each sub-relativity is shrunk toward its cohort rate when the record is thin (Bühlmann credibility), so a short record reads close to 1.00×.

Relativity to class 0.80× (80% range 0.02–2.09×) · band Satisfactory · cuts: Excellent <0.60, Strong <0.76, Satisfactory <1.06, Marginal <1.57, Poor <2.11, Critical above

Full methodology · Scoring white paper · Validation study

FMCSA records

BASIC measures and every inspection, violation and crash, sortable and filterable.

FMCSA BASIC Scores

C Property

Total Inspections

Driver Insp

Driver OOS

Vehicle Insp

Vehicle OOS

BASIC	Insp w/ Viol	Measure	Alert
Unsafe Driving	0	0.00
HOS Compliance	0	0.00
Driver Fitness	0	0.00
Controlled Substances	0	0.00
Vehicle Maintenance	0	0.00

SMS record data is sourced from FMCSA's Safety Measurement System (14-FEB-25 – 14-FEB-25) and may cover a different time window than the scoring window used for the FRED grade (Oct 1, 2023 → Oct 31, 2026). Counts here may differ from the grade's in-window counts.

NATURAL STATE MATERIALS AND LOGISTICS LLC

FMCSA Live Status

Fleet & equipment

Registration

Cargo

Worth a closer look

Track record

What they get cited for

Violations by quarter

Crashes

Insurance filed with FMCSA

Where it happens

Forward 12-Month Risk Outlook

FMCSA BASIC Scores

FMCSA Inspection Records