DisputeDispute this score

Motor Carrier Safety Report

DOT #3322643 · ERWIN-KEITH TRANSPORTATION LLC

Generated

ERWIN-KEITH TRANSPORTATION LLC

DOT# 3322643 Wynne, AR Authorized For-Hire / Exempt For-Hire / Private Property

(870) 238-2079 mike@progenyag.com 1315 Highway 193, Wynne AR 72396-7539

18 tractors · all owned 12 drivers 900k mi/yr · ~50k per unit

Satisfactory

FRED Score 50.0 / 100

Low confidence

7 yrs history · 19 roadside inspections

Checking FMCSA…

Fleet & equipment

Power units: 18
Drivers · CDL: 12 · 12
Annual miles: 900k

Type	Own	Term	Total
Trucks	0	0	0
Tractors	18	0	18
Trailers	25	3	28

Registration

Registered: 08-14-2019 (7 yrs)
MCS-150 Update: 03-06-2026
FRED Score Date: Nov 07, 2026
Officer: MIKE DEVAZIER
Officer: STEVEN KEITH

Cargo

18.0

minimal risk

Grain/Feed/Hay

Estimated from the commodity types reported to FMCSA, not from loss history or the true cargo mix.

Expected crash rate is probably higher than similar fleets (about a 60% chance), but the record is too thin to say by how much.

Similar fleets: for-hire fleets of 10–19 trucks with the same kind of operation, years in business and amount of road activity. Compared using its own crash record and roadside inspections.

This motor carrier 1.22×

ExcellentStrongSatisf.SatisfactoryMarginalPoorCritical

▲ Similar fleets 1.0×

Leaning Marginal. Its estimate (1.22× similar fleets) is in the Marginal range, but the record isn't strong enough to be 60% sure it is above the Marginal line (1.06×), so the grade stays Satisfactory.

Expected crashes, next 12 months

1.0 vs 0.8 for similar fleets

Likely 0–3 crashes

This motor carrier

1.0

Similar fleets

0.8

Chance of a fatal crash, next 12 months

~3%

About typical for similar fleets.

What's driving the grade

Crash history

betterworse

Higher so far, not yet proven. 3 crashes on the FMCSA record in 24 months (about 1.5 a year), including 2 with injuries; similar fleets have about 0.8 a year. Too few crashes to be sure, so the grade counts its crash record as about 11% above typical.

Roadside inspections

betterworse

Worse than peers. Violations 1.63× and unsafe-driving and hours-of-service violations 1.43× the rate expected for its inspections. Together they move its crash estimate +10%: roadside results weigh far less than crash history. It's inspected more often than most fleets its size.

Worth a closer look

From the FMCSA record. The grade already counts the safety items; insurance filings and links to other motor carriers are not in it.

Injury crashes

2 crashes with 2 people hurt in 24 months.

Ask: claim status and driver history for these crashes.
Brakes and lights

Brakes are 14 of 33 violations (42%). Brake or light defects led to 4 out-of-service orders.

Ask: the preventive-maintenance schedule and shop records.

Strengths

Driver out-of-service rate 0.0% vs 6.7% national.
No FMCSA BASIC alerts.

Data flags

High speeding: 5

Track record

FMCSA record, Sep 2024 – Sep 2026 · grade scored on Sep 1, 2023 → Sep 30, 2026

Crashes

0 fatalities · 2 injuries · 0 tow-aways

Inspections

32% clean (no violations)

Vehicle out-of-service

66.7%

4 of 6

National avg 22.3%

Driver out-of-service

0.0%

0 of 19

National avg 6.7%

Violations

8 out-of-service

Inspections per quarter With an out-of-service order

Sep 25–30, 2024 isn't charted (too little of that quarter is on file); the 24-month totals include its 1 inspection.

vs 1,147 peer fleets

	This motor carrier	Peers
Crashes	0.083	0.023
Inspections	1.19	0.66
Violations	0.92	0.54
Critical violations	0.17	0.08

	This motor carrier	Peers
Crashes	0.167	0.083
Inspections	2.39	2.38
Violations	1.83	2.02
Critical violations	0.33	0.32

Yearly rates from the last 24 months. Peers: 10–19 power units, minimal-risk cargo.

What they get cited for

33 violations · 24 months

Vehicle maintenance No alert

25 · 8 OOS

Brakes 14 · Lights 6 · Tires 2 · Cargo securement 1 · Wheels & hubs 1 · 1 more
Unsafe driving No alert

7 · 0 OOS

Speeding 6 · Seat belt 1
Hours of service No alert

1 · 0 OOS

False log 1
Driver fitness No alert

0
Drugs & alcohol No alert

0

Out-of-service violations “No alert” = under FMCSA's BASIC intervention threshold

Violations by quarter

Tap a category to show or hide it

No violation trend data

Crashes

24 months

Aug

17

2026

Arkansas
Injury · 1 person hurt
Daylight, one-way trafficway not divided.
Jun

2

2025

Arkansas
Property damage only
Daylight, two-way trafficway not divided. FMCSA: not preventable.
Sep

30

2024

Arkansas
Injury · 1 person hurt
Daylight, two-way trafficway not divided.

Insurance filed with FMCSA

Today · live FMCSA check

Checking FMCSA…

No MC, FF or MX docket on FMCSA's registration for this motor carrier, so there are no insurance filings to show. FMCSA collects filings only from registered for-hire authorities; other motor carriers keep proof of insurance (MCS-90) at their place of business.

FMCSA filings only, not a policy audit. Not part of the FRED grade. Wrong or out of date?

Where it happens

Loading map data…

Inspections by state

Arkansas (HQ) 14
Missouri 2
Tennessee 2
Mississippi 1

How this grade is calculated

The model, its inputs, the window it scored and its confidence. For actuaries and anyone checking the work.

Forward 12-Month Risk Outlook

The FRED Score predicts this motor carrier's crash risk over the next 12 months — how often they're likely to crash and how severe those crashes tend to be — versus a typical fleet of its size (18 power units: 18 filed, 14 seen roadside in 24 months).

Crash Outlook vs Peer Fleet

crashes per year · same scale

Average peer fleet

0.8

Actual, per year in window

1.0

Projected, next 12 mo

1.0

0 0.75 1.5

We'd expect a typical fleet of 18 power units this active to have about 0.8 crashes a year. This motor carrier recorded 3 in its scoring window (Sep 1, 2023 → Aug 31, 2026, about 1.0 a year) — about 1.2× a typical fleet. Factoring in its inspection and violation record inside that window and the credibility of its own experience, the model projects about 1.0 over the next 12 — about 1.2× the typical fleet. When this motor carrier does crash, those crashes tend to be substantially more severe than average — roughly 3.4× the injury/fatal weight of a typical crash.

Fatal-crash risk: about 3% chance in the next 12 months

Modeled fatal-crash rate is about typical for similar fleets (likelihood of at least one fatal crash, from its exposure and safety profile).

Track Record Used

Crashes Sep 1, 2023 → Aug 31, 2026 · inspections Oct 1, 2024 → Sep 30, 2026 · data as of Oct 29, 2026

Inside that window: 18 inspections and 3 crashes.

Outside the scoring window

on the FMCSA record · not in this grade

Aged out — crashes before Sep 1, 2023, inspections before Oct 1, 2024

1 inspection with no out-of-service result

Confidence: Low · Z = 0.29

Satisfactory — 1.22x its class rate (cuts: Excellent <0.60, Strong <0.76, Satisfactory <1.06, Marginal <1.57, Poor <2.11). Class rate 0.047 crashes per power-unit-year for a 18-unit for-hire fleet (pu10_19). Violations 1.10x (driver behaviour 1.43x, out-of-service 1.23x, all violations 1.63x; 18 inspections). Experience 1.11x: 2.0 decayed crashes against 1.4 expected over 36 months (credibility 0.29, a 3.44). 80% range 0.60–1.94x. Last change: no change since the last run.

No change since the previous weekly run.

Scoring flags Thin record (low credibility: little exposure behind the grade) (informational — no grade effect)

What Drives This Score

1.00× = this motor carrier's class rate

FRED multiplies three factors: the class rate a fleet of this size, class and activity is expected to run, a violation relativity from its roadside record, and its own crash experience over 36 months weighted by how much exposure stands behind it. The grade is the band of the resulting relativity to class, then the screens.

Class rate

4.7 crashes per 100 power-unit-years

18 power units · 0.85 expected crashes a year

Violation relativity

1.10×

18 inspections in window

Crash experience

1.11×

2.0 decayed crashes vs 1.4 expected · credibility 0.29

Driver behaviour

1.43×

Out-of-service rate

1.23×

All violations

1.63×

0×1× class2×+

Each sub-relativity is shrunk toward its cohort rate when the record is thin (Bühlmann credibility), so a short record reads close to 1.00×.

Relativity to class 1.22× (80% range 0.60–1.94×) · band Marginal → displayed Satisfactory · cuts: Excellent <0.60, Strong <0.76, Satisfactory <1.06, Marginal <1.57, Poor <2.11, Critical above

Full methodology · Scoring white paper · Validation study

FMCSA records

BASIC measures and every inspection, violation and crash, sortable and filterable.

FMCSA BASIC Scores

AB Property

Total Inspections

Driver Insp

Driver OOS

Vehicle Insp

Vehicle OOS

BASIC	Insp w/ Viol	Measure
Unsafe Driving	7	2.66
HOS Compliance	1	0.46
Driver Fitness	0	0.00
Controlled Substances	0	0.00
Vehicle Maintenance	5	15.70

SMS record data is sourced from FMCSA's Safety Measurement System (01-MAY-25 – 31-JUL-26) and may cover a different time window than the scoring window used for the FRED grade (Sep 1, 2023 → Sep 30, 2026). Counts here may differ from the grade's in-window counts.

ERWIN-KEITH TRANSPORTATION LLC

Fleet & equipment

Registration

Cargo

Worth a closer look

Track record

What they get cited for

Violations by quarter

Crashes

Insurance filed with FMCSA

Where it happens

Forward 12-Month Risk Outlook

FMCSA BASIC Scores

FMCSA Inspection Records

FMCSA Crash Records

FMCSA Violation Records

ERWIN-KEITH TRANSPORTATION LLC

FMCSA Live Status

Fleet & equipment

Registration

Cargo

Worth a closer look

Track record

What they get cited for

Violations by quarter

Crashes

Insurance filed with FMCSA

Where it happens

Forward 12-Month Risk Outlook

FMCSA BASIC Scores

FMCSA Inspection Records

FMCSA Crash Records

FMCSA Violation Records