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Motor Carrier Safety Report

DOT #68745 · TOBY'S TRUCKING INC

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TOBY'S TRUCKING INC

DOT# 68745 DUNS# 41315300 Petaluma, CA Authorized For-Hire / Exempt For-Hire / Private Property

(707) 763-3867 denise@tobystrucking.com 421 Payran Street, Petaluma CA 94952

94 power units · all owned 40 drivers

Not enough record

Graded once the record supports it

52 yrs history · 40 roadside inspections

Checking FMCSA…

Fleet & equipment

Power units: 94
Drivers · CDL: 40 · 40
Annual miles: 1.7M unreliable

Type	Own	Total
Trucks	40	40
Tractors	7	7
Trailers	35	35

Registration

Organization: CORPORATION
Registered: 06-01-1974 (52 yrs)
MCS-150 Update: 10-22-2026 (Address Change)
FRED Score Date: Nov 08, 2026
Officer: TOBY GIACOMINI

Cargo

31.7

low risk

Building Materials Other: COMPOST, BARK, ALMOND HULLS, DAIRY COMMODITIES Grain/Feed/Hay Construction

Estimated from the commodity types reported to FMCSA, not from loss history or the true cargo mix.

Mileage Unreliable

MCS-150 annual mileage appears too low for fleet size given observed activity. The per-100k-mile rate benchmarks on this page are excluded; the FRED grade does not use mileage (crash exposure is power-unit-years, violation exposure is inspection counts).

Not enough record to grade yet.

40 inspections and 2 crashes on the FMCSA record in 24 months fit anything from an Excellent fleet to a Poor one.

Similar fleets: intrastate fleets of 50–99 trucks with the same kind of operation, years in business and amount of road activity. Compared using its own crash record and roadside inspections.

Per truck, fleets like this one are expected to crash about 0.4× as often as the median active fleet of 50–99 trucks.

80% likely range 0.54×–1.68×

ExcellentStrongSatisf.SatisfactoryMarginalPoorCritical

▲ Similar fleets 1.0×

Expected crashes, next 12 months

1.8 vs 1.7 for similar fleets

Likely 0–4 crashes

This motor carrier

1.8

Similar fleets

1.7

A record this thin can't pin that down: about a 1-in-7 chance it runs at Poor-level crash rates.

Ask

Loss runs for the last 3 years, and confirm the fleet is operating at its filed size (94 power units).

What the record shows

Crash history

betterworse

Lower so far, not yet proven. 2 crashes on the FMCSA record in 24 months (about 1 a year), including 1 with injuries; similar fleets have about 1.7 a year. Too short a record to be sure, so the grade counts its crash record as about 13% above typical. The grade counts 4 crashes in its 36-month scoring window, recent ones weighted most.

Roadside inspections

betterworse

Better than peers. Out-of-service orders 0.52× the rate expected for its inspections. Together they move its crash estimate -5%: roadside results weigh far less than crash history. It's inspected more often than most fleets its size.

Worth a closer look

From the FMCSA record. The estimate already counts the safety items; insurance filings and links to other motor carriers are context only.

Injury crashes

1 crash with 1 person hurt in 24 months.

Ask: claim status and driver history for these crashes.

Strengths

Vehicle out-of-service rate 9.7% vs 30.6% for intrastate motor carriers; driver 0.0% vs 8.5%.
No FMCSA BASIC alerts.

Data flags

Dangerous driving: 2
Unreliable reported mileage
The motor carrier's self-reported annual mileage (MCS-150) looks implausible, so exposure- and mileage-based figures may be distorted.
Estimated mileage
No usable mileage was reported, so exposure was estimated from similar motor carriers. Mileage-based metrics here are approximate.

Track record

FMCSA record, Oct 2024 – Jul 2026 · grade scored on Oct 1, 2023 → Oct 31, 2026

Crashes

0 fatalities · 1 injury · 0 tow-aways

Inspections

58% clean (no violations)

Vehicle out-of-service

9.7%

3 of 31

Intrastate avg 30.6%

Driver out-of-service

0.0%

0 of 40

Intrastate avg 8.5%

Violations

3 out-of-service

Inspected about as often as intrastate fleets of 50–99 trucks in California (about 33 in 24 months would be typical; 43% of them had none).

Inspections per quarter With an out-of-service order

vs 64 peer fleets

	This motor carrier	Peers
Crashes	0.016	0.013
Inspections	0.39	0.31
Violations	0.18	0.14
Critical violations	0.03	0.03

Yearly rates from the last 24 months. Peers: intrastate fleets, 50–99 power units, low-risk cargo.

What they get cited for

33 violations · 24 months

Vehicle maintenance No alert

27 · 3 OOS

Brakes 8 · Lights 6 · Steering & suspension 3 · Wheels & hubs 2 · Cargo securement 1 · 7 more
Unsafe driving No alert

5 · 0 OOS

Speeding 3 · Reckless / lane 2
Hours of service No alert

1 · 0 OOS

Logbook / ELD paperwork 1
Driver fitness No alert

0
Drugs & alcohol No alert

0

Out-of-service violations “No alert” = under FMCSA's BASIC intervention threshold

Violations by quarter

Tap a category to show or hide it

No violation trend data

Crashes

24 months

Aug

11

2026

California
Property damage only
Daylight, two-way trafficway divided unprotected median.
Jun

10

2026

California
Injury · 1 person hurt
Daylight, two-way trafficway divided unprotected median.

Insurance filed with FMCSA

Today · live FMCSA check

Checking FMCSA…

No MC, FF or MX docket on FMCSA's registration for this motor carrier, so there are no insurance filings to show. FMCSA collects filings only from registered for-hire authorities; other motor carriers keep proof of insurance (MCS-90) at their place of business.

FMCSA filings only, not a policy audit. Not part of the FRED grade. Wrong or out of date?

Where it happens

Loading map data…

Inspections by state

California (HQ) 40

Mostly inspected in its home state (100%).

How the estimate is calculated

The model, its inputs, the window it scored and its confidence. For actuaries and anyone checking the work.

Forward 12-Month Risk Outlook

The FRED Score predicts this motor carrier's crash risk over the next 12 months — how often they're likely to crash and how severe those crashes tend to be — versus a typical fleet of its size (94 power units: 94 filed, 26 seen roadside in 24 months).

Crash Outlook vs Peer Fleet

crashes per year · same scale

Average peer fleet

1.7

Actual, per year in window

1.3

Projected, next 12 mo

1.8

0 1.25 2.5

We'd expect a typical fleet of 94 power units this active to have about 1.7 crashes a year. This motor carrier recorded 4 in its scoring window (Oct 1, 2023 → Sep 30, 2026, about 1.3 a year) — fewer than a typical fleet. Factoring in its inspection and violation record inside that window and the credibility of its own experience, the model projects about 1.8 over the next 12. When this motor carrier does crash, those crashes tend to be substantially more severe than average — roughly 3.3× the injury/fatal weight of a typical crash.

Fatal-crash risk: about 5% chance in the next 12 months

Modeled fatal-crash rate is about typical for similar fleets (likelihood of at least one fatal crash, from its exposure and safety profile).

Track Record Used

Crashes Oct 1, 2023 → Sep 30, 2026 · inspections Nov 1, 2024 → Oct 31, 2026 · data as of Nov 4, 2026

Inside that window: 38 inspections and 4 crashes. The FMCSA record tables now hold 36 inspections and 2 crashes in that window — the SMS data moved after this grade was computed.

Outside the scoring window

on the FMCSA record · not in this grade

Aged out — crashes before Oct 1, 2023, inspections before Nov 1, 2024

4 inspections with no out-of-service result

Why there is no grade. Every grade but Satisfactory needs at least a 60% posterior past its cut; Satisfactory is what is left when none passes. Here the 80% likely range (0.54×–1.68×) still runs from below the Excellent cut (0.60×) to above the Poor cut (1.57×), so the record can't separate a best-in-class fleet from a poor one and the page shows no grade and no FRED Score. The forecasts are unchanged: in backtests, records this thin crash at their forecast on average but scatter about 2.6× as widely around it as records that support a Satisfactory grade.

Confidence: Low · Z = 0.27 (posterior 0.49 × exposure corroboration)

Satisfactory — 1.07x its class rate (cuts: Excellent <0.60, Strong <0.76, Satisfactory <1.06, Marginal <1.57, Poor <2.11). Class rate 0.018 crashes per power-unit-year for a 94-unit for-hire fleet (pu50_99). Violations 0.95x (driver behaviour 0.87x, out-of-service 0.52x, all violations 1.20x; 38 inspections). Experience 1.13x: 3.1 decayed crashes against 2.5 expected over 36 months (credibility 0.49, a 2.58). 80% range 0.54–1.68x. Last change: fleet size or class.

Since the previous weekly run the risk relativity moved +28.5%, driven by fleet size or class attributes.

Scoring flags MCS-150 mileage unreliable (mileage is not in the grade) Intrastate operation — rated against intrastate fleets (a class crash rate about 23% lower); roadside inspections are rarer, so the record rests more on crashes Thin record (low credibility: little exposure behind the grade)

What Drives This Score

1.00× = this motor carrier's class rate

FRED multiplies three factors: the class rate a fleet of this size, class and activity is expected to run, a violation relativity from its roadside record, and its own crash experience over 36 months weighted by how much exposure stands behind it. The grade is the band of the resulting relativity to class, then the screens.

Class rate

1.8 crashes per 100 power-unit-years

94 power units · 1.71 expected crashes a year

Violation relativity

0.95×

38 inspections in window

Crash experience

1.13×

3.1 decayed crashes vs 2.5 expected · credibility 0.49

Driver behaviour

0.87×

Out-of-service rate

0.52×

All violations

1.20×

0×1× class2×+

Each sub-relativity is shrunk toward its cohort rate when the record is thin (Bühlmann credibility), so a short record reads close to 1.00×.

Relativity to class 1.07× (80% range 0.54–1.68×) · band Marginal → displayed Satisfactory · cuts: Excellent <0.60, Strong <0.76, Satisfactory <1.06, Marginal <1.57, Poor <2.11, Critical above

Full methodology · Scoring white paper · Validation study

FMCSA records

BASIC measures and every inspection, violation and crash, sortable and filterable.

FMCSA BASIC Scores

C Property

Total Inspections

Driver Insp

Driver OOS

Vehicle Insp

Vehicle OOS

BASIC	Insp w/ Viol	Measure
Unsafe Driving	5	0.32
HOS Compliance	1	0.16
Driver Fitness	0	0.00
Controlled Substances	0	0.00
Vehicle Maintenance	14	3.36

SMS record data is sourced from FMCSA's Safety Measurement System (03-DEC-24 – 30-JUL-25) and may cover a different time window than the scoring window used for the FRED grade (Oct 1, 2023 → Oct 31, 2026). Counts here may differ from the grade's in-window counts.

TOBY'S TRUCKING INC

Fleet & equipment

Registration

Cargo

Worth a closer look

Track record

What they get cited for

Violations by quarter

Crashes

Insurance filed with FMCSA

Where it happens

Forward 12-Month Risk Outlook

FMCSA BASIC Scores

FMCSA Inspection Records

FMCSA Crash Records

FMCSA Violation Records

TOBY'S TRUCKING INC

FMCSA Live Status

Fleet & equipment

Registration

Cargo

Worth a closer look

Track record

What they get cited for

Violations by quarter

Crashes

Insurance filed with FMCSA

Where it happens

Forward 12-Month Risk Outlook

FMCSA BASIC Scores

FMCSA Inspection Records

FMCSA Crash Records

FMCSA Violation Records