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Motor Carrier Safety Report

DOT #880926 · MACRAE CUSTOM FARMING INC

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MACRAE CUSTOM FARMING INC

DOT# 880926 Heyburn, ID Authorized For-Hire / Exempt For-Hire

(208) 431-8821 mcf@pmt.org 355 S 950 W, Heyburn ID 83336

37 power units · all owned 13 drivers

Intrastate Only

Not enough record

Graded once the record supports it

26 yrs history · 0 roadside inspections

Checking FMCSA…

Fleet & equipment

Power units: 37
Drivers · CDL: 13 · 13
Annual miles: 168k unreliable

Type	Own	Total
Trucks	20	20
Tractors	17	17
Trailers	17	17

Registration

Organization: INDIVIDUAL
Registered: 05-17-2000 (26 yrs)
MCS-150 Update: 12-04-2025 (Biennial Update)
FRED Score Date: Nov 08, 2026
Officer: HOWARD SCHMITT JOANN MACRAE
Officer: CASEY SCHMITT LAURIE SCHMITT

Cargo

63.6

medium risk

Machinery/Large Objects Other: MANURE IN NATURAL STATE Grain/Feed/Hay

High-Risk Cargo: Machinery Large

Estimated from the commodity types reported to FMCSA, not from loss history or the true cargo mix.

Exposure Unverified

The expected crashes on this page assume the filed fleet of 37 power units is real, but the roadside record corroborates little of it — 2 units seen in 24 months, 0.00 inspections per filed unit-year. Verify the fleet size before relying on the crash expectation.

Mileage Unreliable

MCS-150 annual mileage appears too low for fleet size given observed activity. The per-100k-mile rate benchmarks on this page are excluded; the FRED grade does not use mileage (crash exposure is power-unit-years, violation exposure is inspection counts).

Intrastate operation

Runs within Idaho only. Intrastate fleets in Idaho are inspected about 1 a year for every 49 trucks; interstate fleets, about 1 a year for every 2 trucks. So this record rests mainly on crash reports, which states file for intrastate trucks too, and few inspections are ordinary here.

Not enough record to grade yet.

No inspections and 2 crashes on the FMCSA record in 24 months fit anything from an Excellent fleet to a Poor one. It leans worse than similar fleets (about a 60% chance), but not by enough to grade.

Similar fleets: intrastate fleets of 20–49 trucks with the same kind of operation, years in business and amount of road activity. Compared using its own crash record and roadside inspections.

80% likely range 0.36×–3.21×

ExcellentStrongSatisf.SatisfactoryMarginalPoorCritical

▲ Similar fleets 1.0×

Expected crashes, next 12 months

0.4 vs 0.2 for similar fleets

Likely 0–1 crashes

This motor carrier

0.4

Similar fleets

0.2

A record this thin can't pin that down: about a 1-in-2 chance it runs at Poor-level crash rates.

Ask

Loss runs for the last 3 years, and confirm the fleet is operating at its filed size (37 power units).

What the record shows

Crash history

betterworse

Leans worse, not yet proven. 2 crashes on the FMCSA record in 24 months (about 1 a year), including 1 with injuries; similar fleets have about 0.2 a year.

Roadside inspections

betterworse

No roadside record. No inspections in the scoring window, so roadside results leave its estimate at typical.

Worth a closer look

From the FMCSA record. The estimate already counts the safety items; insurance filings and links to other motor carriers are context only.

Injury crashes

1 crash with 1 person hurt in 24 months.

Ask: claim status and driver history for these crashes.
Filed fleet not seen on the road

Only 2 of the 37 filed power units were seen at a roadside inspection in 24 months (0 inspections in all). The crash expectation assumes all 37 are running. Intrastate fleets of 20–49 trucks in Idaho are rarely inspected (about 1 a year for every 17 trucks), so the roadside record can't confirm the fleet either way.

Ask: how many trucks are actually operating, with the vehicle schedule (the MCS-150 was last updated Dec 2025).

Data flags

Unreliable reported mileage
The motor carrier's self-reported annual mileage (MCS-150) looks implausible, so exposure- and mileage-based figures may be distorted.
Estimated mileage
No usable mileage was reported, so exposure was estimated from similar motor carriers. Mileage-based metrics here are approximate.
Limited inspection history
Fewer than 5 roadside inspections on record, so there isn't enough data to score this motor carrier with high confidence — the score leans more on peers.

Track record

FMCSA record, last 24 months · grade scored on Oct 1, 2023 → Oct 31, 2026

Crashes

0 fatalities · 1 injury · 0 tow-aways

Inspections

roadside inspections

Vehicle out-of-service

—

no inspections

Intrastate avg 30.6%

Driver out-of-service

—

no inspections

Intrastate avg 8.5%

Violations

0 out-of-service

Inspected less often than intrastate fleets of 20–49 trucks in Idaho (about 4 in 24 months would be typical; 49% of them had none).

vs 1,453 peer fleets

Inspections per power unit look like an outlier vs peers; read these rates with care.

	This motor carrier	Peers
Crashes	0.027	0.012
Inspections	0.00	0.32
Violations	0.00	0.29
Critical violations	0.00	0.05

Yearly rates from the last 24 months. Peers: intrastate fleets, 20–49 power units, medium-risk cargo.

What they get cited for

0 violations · 24 months

No violations on the FMCSA record in the last 24 months.

Violations by quarter

Tap a category to show or hide it

No violation trend data

Crashes

24 months

Mar

27

2025

Idaho
Property damage only
Daylight, two-way trafficway not divided.
Mar

24

2025

Idaho
Injury · 1 person hurt
Daylight, two-way trafficway not divided.

Insurance filed with FMCSA

Today · live FMCSA check

Checking FMCSA…

No MC, FF or MX docket on FMCSA's registration for this motor carrier, so there are no insurance filings to show. FMCSA collects filings only from registered for-hire authorities; other motor carriers keep proof of insurance (MCS-90) at their place of business.

FMCSA filings only, not a policy audit. Not part of the FRED grade. Wrong or out of date?

Where it happens

Loading map data…

How the estimate is calculated

The model, its inputs, the window it scored and its confidence. For actuaries and anyone checking the work.

Forward 12-Month Risk Outlook

The FRED Score predicts this motor carrier's crash risk over the next 12 months — how often they're likely to crash and how severe those crashes tend to be — versus a typical fleet of its size (37 power units: 37 filed, 2 seen roadside in 24 months).

Crash Outlook vs Peer Fleet

crashes per year · same scale

Average peer fleet

0.2

Actual, per year in window

0.7

Projected, next 12 mo

0.4

0 0.5 1

We'd expect a typical fleet of 37 power units this active to have about 0.2 crashes a year — but only 2 of the 37 filed units were seen roadside in 24 months (0.00 inspections per filed unit-year), so this expectation assumes the filed fleet is real. This motor carrier recorded 2 in its scoring window (Oct 1, 2023 → Sep 30, 2026, about 0.7 a year) — about 2.9× a typical fleet. Factoring in its inspection and violation record inside that window and the credibility of its own experience, the model projects about 0.4 over the next 12 — about 1.6× the typical fleet. When this motor carrier does crash, those crashes tend to be substantially more severe than average — roughly 3.3× the injury/fatal weight of a typical crash.

Fatal-crash risk: less than a 1% chance in the next 12 months

Modeled fatal-crash rate is roughly 1.6× that of similar fleets (likelihood of at least one fatal crash, from its exposure and safety profile; the filed fleet is not corroborated roadside).

Track Record Used

Crashes Oct 1, 2023 → Sep 30, 2026 · inspections Nov 1, 2024 → Oct 31, 2026 · data as of Nov 4, 2026

Inside that window: 0 inspections and 2 crashes.

Why there is no grade. Every grade but Satisfactory needs at least a 60% posterior past its cut; Satisfactory is what is left when none passes. Here the 80% likely range (0.36×–3.21×) still runs from below the Excellent cut (0.60×) to above the Poor cut (1.57×), so the record can't separate a best-in-class fleet from a poor one and the page shows no grade and no FRED Score. The forecasts are unchanged: in backtests, records this thin crash at their forecast on average but scatter about 2.6× as widely around it as records that support a Satisfactory grade.

Confidence: Prior-only · Z = 0.03 (posterior 0.32 × exposure corroboration) Provisional

Satisfactory — 1.59x its class rate (cuts: Excellent <0.60, Strong <0.76, Satisfactory <1.06, Marginal <1.57, Poor <2.11). Class rate 0.006 crashes per power-unit-year for a 37-unit for-hire fleet (pu20_49). Violations 1.00x (driver behaviour 1.00x, out-of-service 1.00x, all violations 1.00x; 0 inspections). Experience 1.59x: 1.0 decayed crashes against 0.4 expected over 36 months (credibility 0.32, a 0.75). 80% range 0.36–3.21x. Exposure: 2 of 37 filed power units seen roadside in 24 months, 0.00 inspections per filed unit-year — the class expectation assumes the filed fleet is real; confidence cut. Last change: older crashes rolling off.

Since the previous weekly run the risk relativity moved -3.0%, driven by older crashes rolling off the 36-month ramp.

Scoring flags MCS-150 mileage unreliable (mileage is not in the grade) Intrastate operation — rated against intrastate fleets (a class crash rate about 23% lower); roadside inspections are rarer, so the record rests more on crashes Thin record (low credibility: little exposure behind the grade) Filed fleet not corroborated roadside — expected crashes assume the filed units are real; an Excellent or Strong grade is capped one band (interim)

What Drives This Score

1.00× = this motor carrier's class rate

FRED multiplies three factors: the class rate a fleet of this size, class and activity is expected to run, a violation relativity from its roadside record, and its own crash experience over 36 months weighted by how much exposure stands behind it. The grade is the band of the resulting relativity to class, then the screens.

Class rate

0.6 crashes per 100 power-unit-years

37 power units (2 seen roadside — exposure unverified) · 0.23 expected crashes a year

Violation relativity

1.00×

0 inspections in window

Crash experience

1.59×

1.0 decayed crash vs 0.4 expected · credibility 0.32

Driver behaviour

1.00×

Out-of-service rate

1.00×

All violations

1.00×

0×1× class2×+

Each sub-relativity is shrunk toward its cohort rate when the record is thin (Bühlmann credibility), so a short record reads close to 1.00×.

Relativity to class 1.59× (80% range 0.36–3.21×) · band Poor → displayed Satisfactory · cuts: Excellent <0.60, Strong <0.76, Satisfactory <1.06, Marginal <1.57, Poor <2.11, Critical above

Full methodology · Scoring white paper · Validation study

FMCSA records

BASIC measures and every inspection, violation and crash, sortable and filterable.

FMCSA BASIC Scores

C Property

Total Inspections

Driver Insp

Driver OOS

Vehicle Insp

Vehicle OOS

BASIC	Insp w/ Viol	Measure	Alert
Unsafe Driving	0	0.00
HOS Compliance	0	0.00
Driver Fitness	0	0.00
Controlled Substances	0	0.00
Vehicle Maintenance	0	0.00

SMS record data is sourced from FMCSA's Safety Measurement System and may cover a different time window than the scoring window used for the FRED grade (Oct 1, 2023 → Oct 31, 2026). Counts here may differ from the grade's in-window counts.

MACRAE CUSTOM FARMING INC

FMCSA Live Status

Fleet & equipment

Registration

Cargo

Worth a closer look

Track record

What they get cited for

Violations by quarter

Crashes

Insurance filed with FMCSA

Where it happens

Forward 12-Month Risk Outlook

FMCSA BASIC Scores

FMCSA Crash Records