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Motor Carrier Safety Report

DOT #889016 · JOHN GRAHAM TRUCKING

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JOHN GRAHAM TRUCKING

DOT# 889016 Freedom, PA Authorized For-Hire

(724) 775-4948 oklein2388@gmail.com 150 Klein Rd, Freedom PA 15042

6 power units · all owned 6 drivers 215k mi/yr · ~36k per unit

Intrastate Only

Not enough record

Graded once the record supports it

26 yrs history · 9 roadside inspections

Checking FMCSA…

Fleet & equipment

Power units: 6
Drivers · CDL: 6 · 6
Annual miles: 215k

Type	Own	Total
Trucks	6	6
Tractors	0	0
Trailers	0	0

Registration

Registered: 06-22-2000 (26 yrs)
MCS-150 Update: 03-17-2022 (Biennial Update)
FRED Score Date: Nov 07, 2026
Officer: JOHN S GRAHAM

Cargo

27.0

low risk

Building Materials Construction

Estimated from the commodity types reported to FMCSA, not from loss history or the true cargo mix.

Advisory Grade — Outside the Ranked Book

Fleets under 10 power units are graded against their size cohort (pu6_9) for reference, but sit outside the 10+ power-unit underwriting book the FRED rank covers.

Intrastate Only

Intrastate-only carrier — not required to file MCS-150. May be inspected less frequently than interstate carriers. Safety rates may have lower statistical confidence.

Not enough record to grade yet.

9 inspections and no crashes on the FMCSA record in 24 months fit anything from an Excellent fleet to a Poor one. It leans better than similar fleets (about a 60% chance), but not by enough to grade.

Similar fleets: private fleets of 6–9 trucks with the same kind of operation, years in business and amount of road activity. Compared using its own crash record and roadside inspections.

80% likely range 0.22×–1.89×

ExcellentStrongSatisf.SatisfactoryMarginalPoorCritical

▲ Similar fleets 1.0×

Expected crashes, next 12 months

0.2 vs 0.2 for similar fleets

Likely 0–1 crashes

This motor carrier

0.2

Similar fleets

0.2

A record this thin can't pin that down: about a 1-in-6 chance it runs at Poor-level crash rates.

Ask

Loss runs for the last 3 years, and confirm the fleet is operating at its filed size (6 power units).

What the record shows

Crash history

betterworse

About typical. 0 crashes on the FMCSA record in 24 months; similar fleets have about 0.2 a year. The grade counts 1 crash in its 36-month scoring window, recent ones weighted most.

Roadside inspections

betterworse

Mixed. Unsafe-driving and hours-of-service violations 1.26× the rate expected for its inspections, but out-of-service orders 0.47× and violations 0.68×. Together they move its crash estimate -6%: roadside results weigh far less than crash history. It's inspected more often than most fleets its size.

Worth a closer look

From the FMCSA record. The estimate already counts the safety items; insurance filings and links to other motor carriers are context only.

Nothing on the FMCSA record stands out.

Strengths

No reportable crashes in 24 months.

Data flags

Dangerous driving: 2

Track record

FMCSA record, Apr 2025 – Aug 2026 · grade scored on Sep 1, 2023 → Sep 30, 2026

Crashes

0 fatalities · 0 injuries · 0 tow-aways

Inspections

56% clean (no violations)

Vehicle out-of-service

0.0%

0 of 2

National avg 22.3%

Driver out-of-service

0.0%

0 of 9

National avg 6.7%

Violations

0 out-of-service

Inspections per quarter With an out-of-service order

vs 3,355 peer fleets

	This motor carrier	Peers
Crashes	0.000	0.022
Inspections	0.92	0.66
Violations	0.33	0.65
Critical violations	0.17	0.10

	This motor carrier	Peers
Crashes	0.000	0.049
Inspections	2.56	1.46
Violations	0.93	1.42
Critical violations	0.47	0.23

Yearly rates from the last 24 months. Peers: Small (advisory) power units, low-risk cargo.

What they get cited for

4 violations · 24 months

Unsafe driving No alert

4 · 0 OOS

Reckless / lane 2 · Seat belt 2
Hours of service No alert

0
Driver fitness No alert

0
Vehicle maintenance No alert

0
Drugs & alcohol No alert

0

Out-of-service violations “No alert” = under FMCSA's BASIC intervention threshold

Violations by quarter

Tap a category to show or hide it

No violation trend data

Crashes

24 months

No reportable crashes on the FMCSA record in the last 24 months.

Insurance filed with FMCSA

Today · live FMCSA check

Checking FMCSA…

No MC, FF or MX docket on FMCSA's registration for this motor carrier, so there are no insurance filings to show. FMCSA collects filings only from registered for-hire authorities; other motor carriers keep proof of insurance (MCS-90) at their place of business.

FMCSA filings only, not a policy audit. Not part of the FRED grade. Wrong or out of date?

Where it happens

Loading map data…

Inspections by state

Pennsylvania (HQ) 9

How the estimate is calculated

The model, its inputs, the window it scored and its confidence. For actuaries and anyone checking the work.

Forward 12-Month Risk Outlook

The FRED Score predicts this motor carrier's crash risk over the next 12 months — how often they're likely to crash and how severe those crashes tend to be — versus a typical fleet of its size (7 power units: 6 filed, 7 seen roadside in 24 months).

Crash Outlook vs Peer Fleet

crashes per year · same scale

Average peer fleet

0.2

Actual, per year in window

0.3

Projected, next 12 mo

0.2

0 0.25 0.5

We'd expect a typical fleet of 7 power units this active to have about 0.2 crashes a year (sized from the 7 units seen roadside; 6 filed). This motor carrier recorded 1 in its scoring window (Sep 1, 2023 → Aug 31, 2026, about 0.3 a year) — about 1.8× a typical fleet. Factoring in its inspection and violation record inside that window and the credibility of its own experience, the model projects about 0.2 over the next 12. When this motor carrier does crash, those crashes tend to be substantially more severe than average — roughly 3.3× the injury/fatal weight of a typical crash.

Fatal-crash risk: less than a 1% chance in the next 12 months

Modeled fatal-crash rate is about typical for similar fleets (likelihood of at least one fatal crash, from its exposure and safety profile).

Track Record Used

Crashes Sep 1, 2023 → Aug 31, 2026 · inspections Oct 1, 2024 → Sep 30, 2026 · data as of Oct 29, 2026

Inside that window: 9 inspections and 1 crash. The FMCSA record tables now hold 9 inspections and 0 crashes in that window — the SMS data moved after this grade was computed.

Why there is no grade. Every grade but Satisfactory needs at least a 60% posterior past its cut; Satisfactory is what is left when none passes. Here the 80% likely range (0.22×–1.89×) still runs from below the Excellent cut (0.60×) to above the Poor cut (1.57×), so the record can't separate a best-in-class fleet from a poor one and the page shows no grade and no FRED Score. The forecasts are unchanged: in backtests, records this thin crash at their forecast on average but scatter about 2.6× as widely around it as records that support a Satisfactory grade.

Confidence: Low · Z = 0.15

Satisfactory — 0.95x its class rate (cuts: Excellent <0.60, Strong <0.76, Satisfactory <1.06, Marginal <1.57, Poor <2.11). Class rate 0.026 crashes per power-unit-year for a 7-unit for-hire fleet (pu6_9). Violations 0.94x (driver behaviour 1.26x, out-of-service 0.47x, all violations 0.68x; 9 inspections). Experience 1.01x: 0.3 decayed crashes against 0.3 expected over 36 months (credibility 0.15, a 1.52). 80% range 0.22–1.89x. Fleet sized at 7 units from roadside VINs (6 filed). Last change: no change since the last run.

No change since the previous weekly run.

Scoring flags MCS-150 filing more than 3 years old Intrastate-only operation (less roadside enforcement) Thin record (low credibility: little exposure behind the grade) (informational — no grade effect)

What Drives This Score

1.00× = this motor carrier's class rate

FRED multiplies three factors: the class rate a fleet of this size, class and activity is expected to run, a violation relativity from its roadside record, and its own crash experience over 36 months weighted by how much exposure stands behind it. The grade is the band of the resulting relativity to class, then the screens.

Class rate

2.6 crashes per 100 power-unit-years

7 power units (6 filed, 7 seen roadside) · 0.18 expected crashes a year

Violation relativity

0.94×

9 inspections in window

Crash experience

1.01×

0.3 decayed crashes vs 0.3 expected · credibility 0.15

Driver behaviour

1.26×

Out-of-service rate

0.47×

All violations

0.68×

0×1× class2×+

Each sub-relativity is shrunk toward its cohort rate when the record is thin (Bühlmann credibility), so a short record reads close to 1.00×.

Relativity to class 0.95× (80% range 0.22–1.89×) · band Satisfactory · cuts: Excellent <0.60, Strong <0.76, Satisfactory <1.06, Marginal <1.57, Poor <2.11, Critical above

Full methodology · Scoring white paper · Validation study

FMCSA records

BASIC measures and every inspection, violation and crash, sortable and filterable.

FMCSA BASIC Scores

C Property

Total Inspections

Driver Insp

Driver OOS

Vehicle Insp

Vehicle OOS

BASIC	Insp w/ Viol	Measure
Unsafe Driving	4	4.00
HOS Compliance	0	0.00
Driver Fitness	0	0.00
Controlled Substances	0	0.00
Vehicle Maintenance	0	0.00

SMS record data is sourced from FMCSA's Safety Measurement System (07-AUG-26 – 29-AUG-25) and may cover a different time window than the scoring window used for the FRED grade (Sep 1, 2023 → Sep 30, 2026). Counts here may differ from the grade's in-window counts.

JOHN GRAHAM TRUCKING

Fleet & equipment

Registration

Cargo

Worth a closer look

Track record

What they get cited for

Violations by quarter

Crashes

Insurance filed with FMCSA

Where it happens

Forward 12-Month Risk Outlook

FMCSA BASIC Scores

FMCSA Inspection Records

FMCSA Violation Records

JOHN GRAHAM TRUCKING

FMCSA Live Status

Fleet & equipment

Registration

Cargo

Worth a closer look

Track record

What they get cited for

Violations by quarter

Crashes

Insurance filed with FMCSA

Where it happens

Forward 12-Month Risk Outlook

FMCSA BASIC Scores

FMCSA Inspection Records

FMCSA Violation Records